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Abu Mazen's minimum
By Danny Rubinstein
Haaretz, November 29, 2004
Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) presented the main features of his political doctrine at a closed meeting held this weekend of the Revolutionary Council of the Fatah movement, which selected him as the movement's candidate for chairman of the Palestinian Authority. He emphasized, of course, that he would follow Yasser Arafat's national last will and testament to the letter, and specified the following: creation of an independent Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, with its capital in Jerusalem, and a just solution of the refugee problem, in accordance with UN Resolution 194. In addition, he spoke about a release of the prisoners (the captives, in Palestinian parlance), and added that the proposal of a permanent settlement with Israel would lead to a referendum, which would give the entire Palestinian public a chance to express its views on the subject.
When Abu Mazen expressed similar sentiments soon after Arafat's death, there were voices in Israel and elsewhere that interpreted these statements as having been said for "internal" purposes. They related primarily to his statement regarding the right of return of the refugees. On the face of it, Abu Mazen must now issue resolute-sounding declaration. He is facing an election campaign, and in order to secure the votes of the Palestinian public, he would be well served to tone down the image of the concession-maker that seeks compromise with Israel, in coordination with the Americans.
Based on this line of thought, after his election Abu Mazen would adopt more accommodating positions toward Israel. Yet this, regretfully, does not seem to be the case. On the contrary: Even the assumption that the statements he is now making are meant for domestic consumption is erroneous. The call for a state within the `67 borders, the capital of which would be in Jerusalem, and a just solution to the refugee problem - were and remain the undeviating and official Palestinian positions since the advent of the diplomatic process. This was the belief of Yasser Arafat and without a doubt will be that of Abu Mazen, as well.
From the Palestinian point of view, these are not overly firm positions. On the contrary, they are the most moderate positions that they can present. It was the Arafat-led Fatah movement that spearheaded promotion of them among the Palestinians. Arafat devised the idea of a partition of the land into two states. He faced the strong opposition of the Islamic bloc and the leftist fronts, with the addition of a few groups from within Fatah (Farouk Kaddoumi and others). Before he was sentenced to five life sentences, and before being dubbed "engineer of the intifada," Marwan Barghouti used to proclaim: "We - the Fatah organization - we are the Palestinian Peace Now." This was his usual answer when asked why the Palestinians did not have such an organization.
The problem now troubling many members of the Palestinian leadership is whether it will be possible to continue pursuing this political course following Arafat's death. Quite a few political activists believe that Arafat's death may also end the idea of a division of the land into two states: Israel and Palestine. That was the idea at the foundation of the Oslo accords, but the political circumstances of hostility, mistrust between the sides, expansion of the settlement blocs and illegal settlement outposts, greater Jewish entrenchment in East Jerusalem, and the inability to end the violence - have eliminated the opportunity for a settlement on the basis of Oslo. Many people in Israel now think that the Oslo agreements were a catastrophe, but among the Palestinians this is much more the case. In recent days, East Jerusalemites have been saying that Abu Mazen would be chosen as Fatah's candidate for chairman of the Palestinian Authority not due to being the architect of Oslo, but in spite of it.
The Palestinian groups opposed to the principle of partitioning the land into two states gained much power during the intifada years. They now include not only Hamas, which has widespread support in Gaza, but also those groups within Fatah, such as the Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade, which initiate a high percentage of terrorist attacks. In other words, Arafat's passing could also be the demise of the mutual recognition of the PLO and Israel, and the end of the idea of two states for two peoples.
